Movilidad, mortalidad y saturación hospitalaria: análisis multifuente de la respuesta pandémica diferencial en las entidades federativas de México (2020-2022)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63862/rhs-v1n2-323-343-2026Keywords:
movilidad poblacional, semáforo epidemiológico, saturación hospitalaria, desigualdad sanitaria, MéxicoAbstract
México registró más de 334,000 defunciones oficiales por COVID-19 entre marzo de 2020 y octubre de 2022, con una distribución territorial altamente desigual. Este artículo examina la secuencia asociativa entre política sanitaria, movilidad poblacional, presión hospitalaria, mortalidad registrada y condiciones estructurales en las 32 entidades federativas. Se desarrolló un diseño cuantitativo longitudinal de panel con ocho fuentes oficiales y más de 350,000 registros pareados. El análisis integró pruebas de Kruskal-Wallis, correlaciones cruzadas con corrección de Bonferroni, pruebas no paramétricas, correlaciones de Pearson y Spearman, regresión lineal múltiple, diagnósticos de multicolinealidad y un test de mediación de Sobel. Los resultados muestran que el Semáforo Epidemiológico se asoció con diferencias significativas en movilidad y hospitalización; la movilidad se vinculó con las defunciones con un desfase de 21 días, mientras que la ocupación hospitalaria funcionó como eslabón intermedio. También se documentó fatiga de restricciones, reducción de la letalidad tras la vacunación y una paradoja pobreza-mortalidad explicada parcialmente por sub-hospitalización e inaccesibilidad vial. Se concluye que la respuesta pandémica mexicana siguió una secuencia de restricciones, movilidad, hospitalización y mortalidad, condicionada por desigualdades territoriales en infraestructura sanitaria.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Faustino Benjamín Rivera López, Humberto Dorantes Benavidez, Xochitl Berenise Gonzales Torres, Tanya Arenas Reséndiz, Ana Laura González Alejo, Armando Luna Fuentes
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